Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Ryan PoehlingGoals1
- Ryan PoehlingAssists1
- Ryan PoehlingPoints2
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists1
- Nick SuzukiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:20Tyson Foerster Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (50), Ryan Poehling (15)2–3
- P310:39Nick Suzuki Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (12)1–3
- P32:40Lane Hutson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (56)1–2
- P31:24Brendan Gallagher Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (22), Christian Dvorak (20)1–1
- P14:10Ryan Poehling Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Jakob Pelletier (12), Cam York (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:10Ryan Poehling Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Jakob Pelletier (12), Cam York (12)PHI 1 – 0 MTL · PHI 38% → 53% +15PHI 38% → 53%+15 pts
- P31:24Brendan Gallagher Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (22), Christian Dvorak (20)PHI 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 32% → 57% +25MTL 32% → 57%+25 pts
- P32:40Lane Hutson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (56)PHI 1 – 2 MTL · MTL 57% → 80% +23MTL 57% → 80%+23 pts
- P310:39Nick Suzuki Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (12)PHI 1 – 3 MTL · MTL 85% → 98% +12MTL 85% → 98%+12 pts
- P319:20Tyson Foerster Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (50), Ryan Poehling (15)PHI 2 – 3 MTL · PHI <1% → <1% +0PHI <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 62%
- ML PHI +155 / MTL -185
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- MTL: Elo 60.1%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- MTL -166
- PHI +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.4 – 3.1 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | 0 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +71 Elo | MTL 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 60.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.014th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 47.4%29th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.9% | Save percentage | 89.2%27th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 26th of 3212–25 | Road vs home | 20–1716th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–40 | 44–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–15 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 28–25 | 42–23 |
| Overs–unders | 38–38 | 41–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–3 MTL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.