New York Islanders at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Simon HolmstromGoals2
- Jean-Gabriel PageauAssists3
- Simon HolmstromPoints4
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals2
- Brady SkjeiAssists3
- Steven StamkosPoints4
Scoring summary
- OT1:56Fedor Svechkov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (21), Steven Stamkos (24)6–7
- P319:20Michael Bunting Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Steven Stamkos (23), Brady Skjei (20)6–6
- P317:53Steven Stamkos Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (33), Filip Forsberg (42)6–5
- P316:19Scott Mayfield Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (24), Alexander Romanov (16)6–4
- P315:21Kyle Palmieri Goal (24) Backhand, assists: none5–4
- P213:25Michael McCarron Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Brady Skjei (19), Jonathan Marchessault (32)4–4
- P212:09Maxim Tsyplakov Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (23), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (28)4–3
- P27:24Steven Stamkos Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Blankenburg (12), Jonathan Marchessault (31)3–3
- P24:36Simon Holmstrom Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (27), Maxim Tsyplakov (25)3–2
- P116:12Anders Lee Goal (28) Deflected, assists: Bo Horvat (28), Adam Pelech (20)2–2
- P111:45Filip Forsberg Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P16:44Ryan O'Reilly Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (17), Luke Evangelista (19)1–1
- P14:16Simon Holmstrom Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Pulock (18), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (26)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:09Maxim Tsyplakov Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (23), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (28)NYI 4 – 3 NSH · NYI 51% → 71% +20NYI 51% → 71%+20 pts
- P213:25Michael McCarron Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Brady Skjei (19), Jonathan Marchessault (32)NYI 4 – 4 NSH · NSH 29% → 49% +21NSH 29% → 49%+21 pts
- P315:21Kyle Palmieri Goal (24) Backhand, assists: noneNYI 5 – 4 NSH · NYI 50% → 91% +40NYI 50% → 91%+40 pts
- P319:20Michael Bunting Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Steven Stamkos (23), Brady Skjei (20)NYI 6 – 6 NSH · NSH <1% → 50% +50NSH <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT1:56Fedor Svechkov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (21), Steven Stamkos (24)NYI 6 – 7 NSH · NSH 50% → 95% +45NSH 50% → 95%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 51%
- ML NYI -115 / NSH -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- NYI: Elo 48.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYI -104
- NSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.8 – 2.7 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −2 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +10 Elo | NSH 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 52.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.532nd of 32 |
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.830th of 32 |
| 11th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 50.9%8th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 89.3%25th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 32 |
| 21st of 3215–22 | Road vs home | 18–2026th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–40 | 30–47 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–26 | 10–30 |
| Underdog | 25–14 | 20–17 |
| Overs–unders | 40–36 | 29–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 2–1 NSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.