Montreal Canadiens at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals1
- Lane HutsonAssists1
- Cole CaufieldPoints1
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals1
- Steven StamkosPoints1
Scoring summary
- P25:47Patrik Laine Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (58), Alex Newhook (11)2–1
- P21:40Cole Caufield Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (57)1–1
- P14:19Steven Stamkos Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (41)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:19Steven Stamkos Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (41)MTL 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 50% → 65% +15NSH 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P21:40Cole Caufield Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (57)MTL 1 – 1 NSH · MTL 32% → 50% +18MTL 32% → 50%+18 pts
- P25:47Patrik Laine Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (58), Alex Newhook (11)MTL 2 – 1 NSH · MTL 50% → 69% +19MTL 50% → 69%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 50%
- ML MTL -110 / NSH -110
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- NSH: Elo 55.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- NSH -100
- MTL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.8 – 2.8 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −3 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +37 Elo | NSH 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.532nd of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.830th of 32 |
| 29th of 3247.5% | Shot share | 50.7%9th of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.3%25th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 18th of 3216–22 | Road vs home | 18–1926th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–32 | 30–46 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–9 | 10–29 |
| Underdog | 42–23 | 20–17 |
| Overs–unders | 41–35 | 29–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 2–1 NSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.