Nashville Predators at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals1
- Nick BlankenburgAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints1
Stars- Mason MarchmentGoals1
- Mikko RantanenAssists2
- Mason MarchmentPoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:42Lian Bichsel Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (52), Jason Robertson (44)1–5
- P39:45Wyatt Johnston Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Mavrik Bourque (14)1–4
- P35:47Roope Hintz Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Jason Robertson (43), Mikko Rantanen (51)1–3
- P30:39Mason Marchment Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (48)1–2
- P219:24Mikael Granlund Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Matt Duchene (47), Mason Marchment (24)1–1
- P24:37Steven Stamkos Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (40), Nick Blankenburg (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:37Steven Stamkos Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (40), Nick Blankenburg (11)NSH 1 – 0 DAL · NSH 34% → 52% +18NSH 34% → 52%+18 pts
- P219:24Mikael Granlund Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Matt Duchene (47), Mason Marchment (24)NSH 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 38% → 63% +24DAL 38% → 63%+24 pts
- P30:39Mason Marchment Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (48)NSH 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 62% → 83% +21DAL 62% → 83%+21 pts
- P35:47Roope Hintz Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Jason Robertson (43), Mikko Rantanen (51)NSH 1 – 3 DAL · DAL 85% → 96% +12DAL 85% → 96%+12 pts
- P39:45Wyatt Johnston Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Mavrik Bourque (14)NSH 1 – 4 DAL · DAL 98% → >99% +2DAL 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 71%
- ML NSH +230 / DAL -280
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- DAL: Elo 73.0%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- DAL -243
- NSH +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.6 – 3.9 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1590 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +3 | NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +173 Elo | DAL 73.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 72.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 72.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.43rd of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.94th of 32 |
| 9th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 50.2%17th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 91.4%2nd of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 30th of 329–29 | Road vs home | 27–82nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–45 | 36–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–29 | 29–33 |
| Underdog | 20–16 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 29–46 | 33–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 3–3 DAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.