Nashville Predators at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Michael BuntingGoals1
- Luke EvangelistaAssists2
- Luke EvangelistaPoints2
Blue Jackets- Kirill MarchenkoGoals3
- Kent JohnsonAssists3
- Kirill MarchenkoPoints4
Scoring summary
- P39:02Jordan Oesterle Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Smith (8), Michael McCarron (9)4–8
- P35:23Kirill Marchenko Goal (31) Slap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (32), Dante Fabbro (15)3–8
- P219:41Dante Fabbro Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (23), Kent Johnson (27)3–7
- P216:47Sean Monahan Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (39), Boone Jenner (12)3–6
- P212:00Adam Fantilli Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (11)3–5
- P26:26Justin Barron Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Jakub Vrana (5)3–4
- P25:43Michael Bunting Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Fedor Svechkov (8), Luke Evangelista (18)2–4
- P24:12Kirill Marchenko Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (31)1–4
- P118:34Filip Forsberg Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (17), Ryan O'Reilly (28)1–3
- P118:10Sean Monahan Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (26), Zach Werenski (54)0–3
- P116:34Adam Fantilli Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Denton Mateychuk (7), Kent Johnson (25)0–2
- P11:15Kirill Marchenko Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (53)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:15Kirill Marchenko Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (53)NSH 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 64% → 76% +13CBJ 64% → 76%+13 pts
- P116:34Adam Fantilli Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Denton Mateychuk (7), Kent Johnson (25)NSH 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 77% → 88% +11CBJ 77% → 88%+11 pts
- P118:10Sean Monahan Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (26), Zach Werenski (54)NSH 0 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 88% → 95% +7CBJ 88% → 95%+7 pts
- P26:26Justin Barron Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Jakub Vrana (5)NSH 3 – 4 CBJ · NSH 11% → 23% +12NSH 11% → 23%+12 pts
- P212:00Adam Fantilli Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (11)NSH 3 – 5 CBJ · CBJ 78% → 90% +12CBJ 78% → 90%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 64%
- ML NSH +165 / CBJ -195
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- CBJ: Elo 60.7%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -175
- NSH +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.9 – 3.6 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −1 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +75 Elo | CBJ 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 63.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 8th of 3250.8% | Shot share | 49.4%19th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.2%27th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 30th of 329–28 | Road vs home | 21–1413th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–44 | 43–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–29 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 20–15 | 38–23 |
| Overs–unders | 28–46 | 41–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 3–0 CBJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.