Dallas Stars at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Mikko RantanenGoals1
- Mikko RantanenAssists2
- Mikko RantanenPoints3
Kraken- Eeli TolvanenGoals1
- Andre BurakovskyAssists1
- Eeli TolvanenPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:26Mikko Rantanen Goal (31) Backhand, assists: Roope Hintz (37)5–1
- P312:56Wyatt Johnston Goal (29) Backhand, assists: Mikko Rantanen (50), Lian Bichsel (4)4–1
- P30:28Mason Marchment Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (46), Mikael Granlund (42)3–1
- P118:24Roope Hintz Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (42), Mikko Rantanen (49)2–1
- P111:50Jason Robertson Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Mavrik Bourque (13), Sam Steel (17)1–1
- P11:27Eeli Tolvanen Goal (22) Batted, assists: Jared McCann (34), Andre Burakovsky (23)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:27Eeli Tolvanen Goal (22) Batted, assists: Jared McCann (34), Andre Burakovsky (23)DAL 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 41% → 56% +15SEA 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P111:50Jason Robertson Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Mavrik Bourque (13), Sam Steel (17)DAL 1 – 1 SEA · DAL 42% → 58% +16DAL 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P118:24Roope Hintz Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (42), Mikko Rantanen (49)DAL 2 – 1 SEA · DAL 58% → 74% +16DAL 58% → 74%+16 pts
- P30:28Mason Marchment Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (46), Mikael Granlund (42)DAL 3 – 1 SEA · DAL 78% → 92% +14DAL 78% → 92%+14 pts
- P312:56Wyatt Johnston Goal (29) Backhand, assists: Mikko Rantanen (50), Lian Bichsel (4)DAL 4 – 1 SEA · DAL 99% → >99% +1DAL 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 59%
- ML DAL -160 / SEA +135
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- DAL: Elo 61.4%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -145
- SEA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.5 – 3.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1584 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +2 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +81 Elo | DAL 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 59.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.014th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.224th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 48.9%22nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 89.7%19th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 5th of 3220–15 | Road vs home | 17–2027th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–38 | 38–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 27–33 | 9–14 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 29–21 |
| Overs–unders | 33–39 | 38–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 4–0 SEA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.