Dallas Stars at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Matt DucheneGoals1
- Mason MarchmentAssists2
- Mason MarchmentPoints2
Kraken- Jaden SchwartzAssists1
- Jaden SchwartzPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:53Mikael Granlund Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (19), Mason Marchment (23)3–1
- P13:19Wyatt Johnston Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (18), Oskar Bäck (11)2–1
- P12:34Matt Duchene Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Mason Marchment (22), Mathew Dumba (7)1–1
- P11:02Kaapo Kakko Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (23), Adam Larsson (19)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:02Kaapo Kakko Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (23), Adam Larsson (19)DAL 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 39% → 53% +15SEA 39% → 53%+15 pts
- P12:34Matt Duchene Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Mason Marchment (22), Mathew Dumba (7)DAL 1 – 1 SEA · DAL 46% → 61% +15DAL 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P13:19Wyatt Johnston Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (18), Oskar Bäck (11)DAL 2 – 1 SEA · DAL 61% → 74% +13DAL 61% → 74%+13 pts
- P318:53Mikael Granlund Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (19), Mason Marchment (23)DAL 3 – 1 SEA · DAL >99% → >99% +0DAL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 61%
- ML DAL -175 / SEA +150
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- DAL: Elo 64.6%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- DAL -159
- SEA +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.6 – 2.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1588 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −19 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.47 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +105 Elo | DAL 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 60.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.9 | Margin | −0.319th of 32 |
| 17th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 49.1%20th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 89.6%21st of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 5th of 3221–15 | Road vs home | 17–2128th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–38 | 38–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–33 | 9–14 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 29–22 |
| Overs–unders | 33–40 | 38–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 5–0 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.