Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Logan StankovenGoals1
- Brent BurnsAssists2
- Brent BurnsPoints2
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals1
- Brandon DuhaimeAssists1
- Tom WilsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P318:15Seth Jarvis Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (43), Brent Burns (22)4–4
- P34:42Jordan Martinook Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Brent Burns (21), Jordan Staal (22)3–4
- P217:29Tom Wilson Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (31)2–4
- P216:51Nic Dowd Goal (14) Batted, assists: Brandon Duhaime (12), John Carlson (46)2–3
- P210:50Dylan Strome Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (28)2–2
- P118:06Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (14), Rasmus Sandin (25)2–1
- P17:14Jackson Blake Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Seth Jarvis (32)2–0
- P15:42Logan Stankoven Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (27), Jack Roslovic (17)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:50Dylan Strome Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (28)CAR 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 25% → 44% +19WSH 25% → 44%+19 pts
- P216:51Nic Dowd Goal (14) Batted, assists: Brandon Duhaime (12), John Carlson (46)CAR 2 – 3 WSH · WSH 44% → 67% +23WSH 44% → 67%+23 pts
- P217:29Tom Wilson Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (31)CAR 2 – 4 WSH · WSH 68% → 85% +18WSH 68% → 85%+18 pts
- P34:42Jordan Martinook Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Brent Burns (21), Jordan Staal (22)CAR 3 – 4 WSH · CAR 9% → 27% +18CAR 9% → 27%+18 pts
- P318:15Seth Jarvis Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (43), Brent Burns (22)CAR 4 – 4 WSH · CAR 2% → 52% +50CAR 2% → 52%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 59%
- ML CAR -160 / WSH +135
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.5 pts
- CAR: Elo 47.6%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- CAR -145
- WSH +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.5 – 3.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −9 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +17 Elo | WSH 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 51.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.61st of 32 |
| 8th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.79th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.93rd of 32 |
| 1st of 3256.1% | Shot share | 50.6%10th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.3%12th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 20th of 3216–22 | Road vs home | 25–1410th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–41 | 44–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 33–38 | 20–25 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 24–8 |
| Overs–unders | 33–44 | 40–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 4–3 WSH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.