Pittsburgh Penguins at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinGoals1
- Matt GrzelcykAssists2
- Evgeni MalkinPoints2
Devils- Ondrej PalatGoals1
- Dawson MercerAssists1
- Ondrej PalatPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:24Bryan Rust Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (57), Ville Koivunen (4)4–2
- P313:21Sidney Crosby Goal (32) Tip-In, assists: Bryan Rust (34), Matt Grzelcyk (37)3–2
- P21:05Valtteri Puustinen Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Evgeni Malkin (34), Matt Grzelcyk (36)2–2
- P116:10Evgeni Malkin Goal (16) , assists: none1–2
- P16:17Ondrej Palat Goal (15) Deflected, assists: Cody Glass (16), Seamus Casey (3)0–2
- P10:15Erik Haula Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (16), Brett Pesce (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:15Erik Haula Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (16), Brett Pesce (13)PIT 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 62% → 75% +13NJ 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P16:17Ondrej Palat Goal (15) Deflected, assists: Cody Glass (16), Seamus Casey (3)PIT 0 – 2 NJ · NJ 75% → 86% +10NJ 75% → 86%+10 pts
- P116:10Evgeni Malkin Goal (16) , assists: nonePIT 1 – 2 NJ · PIT 13% → 24% +11PIT 13% → 24%+11 pts
- P21:05Valtteri Puustinen Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Evgeni Malkin (34), Matt Grzelcyk (36)PIT 2 – 2 NJ · PIT 24% → 40% +16PIT 24% → 40%+16 pts
- P313:21Sidney Crosby Goal (32) Tip-In, assists: Bryan Rust (34), Matt Grzelcyk (37)PIT 3 – 2 NJ · PIT 46% → 84% +38PIT 46% → 84%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 62%
- ML PIT +155 / NJ -185
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- NJ: Elo 59.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- NJ -166
- PIT +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.4 – 3.1 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −11 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +69 Elo | NJ 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 63.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.311th of 32 |
| 26th of 3248.4% | Shot share | 51.5%7th of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 90.6%9th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 28th of 3212–28 | Road vs home | 18–1925th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–38 | 32–46 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–11 | 25–39 |
| Underdog | 35–27 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 43–36 | 30–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–4 NJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.