Boston Bruins at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints3
Devils- Stefan NoesenGoals1
- Daniel SprongAssists1
- Stefan NoesenPoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:50Cole Koepke Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: none7–2
- P36:55Fraser Minten Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Vinni Lettieri (2), Andrew Peeke (16)6–2
- P34:58Morgan Geekie Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (59), Nikita Zadorov (15)5–2
- P219:07Casey Mittelstadt Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Lysell (1), Henri Jokiharju (6)4–2
- P214:10Timo Meier Goal (25) Deflected, assists: Erik Haula (9)3–2
- P213:51Stefan Noesen Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Daniel Sprong (4), Nico Hischier (32)3–1
- P23:45Jakub Lauko Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–0
- P119:24Michael Callahan Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (6), David Pastrnak (58)2–0
- P19:38David Pastrnak Goal (41) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (23)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:38David Pastrnak Goal (41) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (23)BOS 1 – 0 NJ · BOS 33% → 49% +15BOS 33% → 49%+15 pts
- P119:24Michael Callahan Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (6), David Pastrnak (58)BOS 2 – 0 NJ · BOS 52% → 69% +17BOS 52% → 69%+17 pts
- P23:45Jakub Lauko Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBOS 3 – 0 NJ · BOS 72% → 85% +13BOS 72% → 85%+13 pts
- P214:10Timo Meier Goal (25) Deflected, assists: Erik Haula (9)BOS 3 – 2 NJ · NJ 21% → 40% +19NJ 21% → 40%+19 pts
- P219:07Casey Mittelstadt Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Lysell (1), Henri Jokiharju (6)BOS 4 – 2 NJ · BOS 63% → 83% +20BOS 63% → 83%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 68%
- ML BOS +200 / NJ -240
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- NJ: Elo 63.3%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- NJ -212
- BOS +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.2 – 3.3 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +7 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +95 Elo | NJ 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 67.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.8% | Shot share | 51.6%7th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 90.8%8th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–9 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 29th of 3211–28 | Road vs home | 18–1822nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–43 | 32–45 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–23 | 25–38 |
| Underdog | 25–20 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 39–39 | 29–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–2 NJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.