Pittsburgh Penguins at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals1
- Bryan RustAssists1
- Bryan RustPoints2
Blues- Jake NeighboursGoals2
- Jordan KyrouAssists1
- Jake NeighboursPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:12Robert Thomas Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (32)4–5
- P319:35Rutger McGroarty Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ville Koivunen (1), Erik Karlsson (42)4–4
- P311:15Rickard Rakell Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (55), Matt Grzelcyk (35)3–4
- P35:56Jake Neighbours Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (1), Oskar Sundqvist (13)2–4
- P28:05Jordan Kyrou Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (26)2–3
- P26:48Pavel Buchnevich Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Nathan Walker (7)2–2
- P24:22Connor Dewar Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (33), Bryan Rust (30)2–1
- P20:39Jake Neighbours Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (51), Philip Broberg (20)1–1
- P13:32Bryan Rust Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Rutger McGroarty (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:39Jake Neighbours Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (51), Philip Broberg (20)PIT 1 – 1 STL · STL 47% → 65% +18STL 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P24:22Connor Dewar Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (33), Bryan Rust (30)PIT 2 – 1 STL · PIT 36% → 55% +19PIT 36% → 55%+19 pts
- P26:48Pavel Buchnevich Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Nathan Walker (7)PIT 2 – 2 STL · STL 44% → 64% +19STL 44% → 64%+19 pts
- P319:35Rutger McGroarty Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ville Koivunen (1), Erik Karlsson (42)PIT 4 – 4 STL · PIT <1% → 48% +48PIT <1% → 48%+48 pts
- OT2:12Robert Thomas Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (32)PIT 4 – 5 STL · STL 54% → 96% +42STL 54% → 96%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- STL 68%
- ML PIT +200 / STL -240
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- STL: Elo 65.2%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- STL -212
- PIT +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.2 – 3.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +1 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +109 Elo | STL 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 65.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.014th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 27th of 3248.0% | Shot share | 49.7%18th of 32 |
| 28th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 90.3%14th of 32 |
| 11th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 32 |
| 28th of 3211–26 | Road vs home | 21–1714th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–37 | 44–32 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–10 | 11–15 |
| Underdog | 33–27 | 33–17 |
| Overs–unders | 41–34 | 34–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–1 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.