Pittsburgh Penguins at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Ville KoivunenAssists1
- Bryan RustPoints1
Blackhawks- Ilya MikheyevGoals2
- Sam RinzelAssists1
- Ilya MikheyevPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:04Ilya Mikheyev Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (19), Joseph Veleno (8)1–3
- P314:36Rickard Rakell Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (31), Ville Koivunen (2)1–2
- P39:40Ilya Mikheyev Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (40), Sam Rinzel (1)0–2
- P218:55Frank Nazar Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (42)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P218:55Frank Nazar Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (42)PIT 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 47% → 71% +23CHI 47% → 71%+23 pts
- P39:40Ilya Mikheyev Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (40), Sam Rinzel (1)PIT 0 – 2 CHI · CHI 80% → 96% +16CHI 80% → 96%+16 pts
- P314:36Rickard Rakell Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (31), Ville Koivunen (2)PIT 1 – 2 CHI · PIT <1% → 12% +11PIT <1% → 12%+11 pts
- P319:04Ilya Mikheyev Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (19), Joseph Veleno (8)PIT 1 – 3 CHI · CHI >99% → >99% +0CHI >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 54%
- ML PIT -130 / CHI +110
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- PIT: Elo 52.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -119
- CHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.4 – 3.1 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1379 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +1 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +17 Elo | PIT 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.931st of 32 |
| 26th of 3248.3% | Shot share | 44.0%32nd of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 89.3%25th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 32 |
| 27th of 3212–27 | Road vs home | 14–2531st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–37 | 39–37 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–10 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 35–27 | 38–34 |
| Overs–unders | 43–34 | 42–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–1 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.