Pittsburgh Penguins at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals1
- Kris LetangAssists1
- Bryan RustPoints1
Stars- Evgenii DadonovGoals3
- Ilya LyubushkinAssists1
- Evgenii DadonovPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:45Sidney Crosby Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Timmins (11)5–3
- P318:17Blake Lizotte Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (18)4–3
- P38:49Bryan Rust Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Sidney Crosby (56)3–3
- P33:11Evgenii Dadonov Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Thomas Harley (33), Ilya Lyubushkin (13)2–3
- P30:20Sidney Crosby Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Rutger McGroarty (2)2–2
- P212:36Evgenii Dadonov Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (49), Mathew Dumba (8)1–2
- P110:43Evgenii Dadonov Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Oskar Bäck (12), Lian Bichsel (5)1–1
- P14:16Sidney Crosby Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (32), Kris Letang (21)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:36Evgenii Dadonov Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (49), Mathew Dumba (8)PIT 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 63% → 81% +18DAL 63% → 81%+18 pts
- P30:20Sidney Crosby Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Rutger McGroarty (2)PIT 2 – 2 DAL · PIT 18% → 39% +21PIT 18% → 39%+21 pts
- P33:11Evgenii Dadonov Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Thomas Harley (33), Ilya Lyubushkin (13)PIT 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 61% → 83% +22DAL 61% → 83%+22 pts
- P38:49Bryan Rust Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Sidney Crosby (56)PIT 3 – 3 DAL · PIT 14% → 41% +27PIT 14% → 41%+27 pts
- P318:17Blake Lizotte Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (18)PIT 4 – 3 DAL · PIT 47% → 98% +52PIT 47% → 98%+52 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 69%
- ML PIT +215 / DAL -260
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- DAL: Elo 73.3%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- DAL -228
- PIT +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.7 – 3.8 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1593 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −1 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +175 Elo | DAL 73.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 71.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 72.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.53rd of 32 |
| 31st of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 2.53rd of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.8 | Margin | +0.93rd of 32 |
| 26th of 3248.1% | Shot share | 50.1%17th of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 91.5%2nd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 28th of 3211–27 | Road vs home | 28–81st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–37 | 37–38 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–10 | 30–33 |
| Underdog | 34–27 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 42–34 | 33–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 0–3 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.