Chicago Blackhawks at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks
Penguins- Kevin HayesGoals2
- Danton HeinenAssists2
- Kevin HayesPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:13Kevin Hayes Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (20), Noel Acciari (7)0–5
- P37:42Kevin Hayes Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (19), Connor Dewar (5)0–4
- P34:28Kris Letang Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (33), Conor Timmins (12)0–3
- P24:45Erik Karlsson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ville Koivunen (3), Bryan Rust (33)0–2
- P119:44Sidney Crosby Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (34), Bryan Rust (32)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:44Sidney Crosby Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (34), Bryan Rust (32)CHI 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 62% → 78% +15PIT 62% → 78%+15 pts
- P24:45Erik Karlsson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ville Koivunen (3), Bryan Rust (33)CHI 0 – 2 PIT · PIT 78% → 89% +11PIT 78% → 89%+11 pts
- P34:28Kris Letang Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (33), Conor Timmins (12)CHI 0 – 3 PIT · PIT 95% → >99% +4PIT 95% → >99%+4 pts
- P37:42Kevin Hayes Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (19), Connor Dewar (5)CHI 0 – 4 PIT · PIT >99% → >99% +0PIT >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P318:13Kevin Hayes Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (20), Noel Acciari (7)CHI 0 – 5 PIT · PIT 100% → 100% +0PIT 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 65%
- ML CHI +175 / PIT -210
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- PIT: Elo 64.3%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -186
- CHI +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.8 – 3.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1383 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −2 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +102 Elo | PIT 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 65.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.919th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.731st of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.9 | Margin | −0.729th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3244.1% | Shot share | 48.3%26th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.0%28th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 32nd of 327–30 | Road vs home | 19–1922nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–37 | 40–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 39–34 | 35–27 |
| Overs–unders | 42–35 | 43–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–1 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.