Carolina Hurricanes at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Tyson JostGoals1
- Dmitry OrlovAssists1
- Taylor HallPoints1
Canadiens- Kaiden GuhleGoals2
- Nick SuzukiAssists1
- Kaiden GuhlePoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:05Jake Evans Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: none2–4
- P314:10Tyson Jost Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Bradly Nadeau (1), Dmitry Orlov (22)2–3
- P218:48Kaiden Guhle Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (33), Lane Hutson (60)1–3
- P216:22Nick Suzuki Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (22)1–2
- P19:56Taylor Hall Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (11), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (21)1–1
- P13:50Kaiden Guhle Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (33), Nick Suzuki (59)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:50Kaiden Guhle Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (33), Nick Suzuki (59)CAR 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 58% → 72% +14MTL 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P19:56Taylor Hall Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (11), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (21)CAR 1 – 1 MTL · CAR 28% → 43% +15CAR 28% → 43%+15 pts
- P216:22Nick Suzuki Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (22)CAR 1 – 2 MTL · MTL 55% → 76% +21MTL 55% → 76%+21 pts
- P218:48Kaiden Guhle Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (33), Lane Hutson (60)CAR 1 – 3 MTL · MTL 77% → 91% +14MTL 77% → 91%+14 pts
- P314:10Tyson Jost Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Bradly Nadeau (1), Dmitry Orlov (22)CAR 2 – 3 MTL · CAR <1% → 11% +10CAR <1% → 11%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 58%
- ML CAR +130 / MTL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 41%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.8 pts
- MTL: Elo 46.2%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- MTL -138
- CAR +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.5 – 3.0 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | 0 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +26 Elo | CAR 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 58.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.224th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 1st of 3256.0% | Shot share | 46.8%29th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 89.5%23rd of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 21st of 3216–23 | Road vs home | 22–1817th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–43 | 47–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 34–40 | 3–10 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 44–24 |
| Overs–unders | 35–45 | 43–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 4–1 MTL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.