Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens
Maple Leafs- John TavaresAssists1
- John TavaresPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:36Mitch Marner Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (39), John Tavares (36)0–1
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- OT0:36Mitch Marner Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (39), John Tavares (36)MTL 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 55% → 93% +38TOR 55% → 93%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 67%
- ML MTL +190 / TOR -225
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 68.2%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- TOR -201
- MTL +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.3 – 3.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +11 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +133 Elo | TOR 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 67.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.913th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.410th of 32 |
| 29th of 3247.1% | Shot share | 48.9%23rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 91.0%4th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 17th of 3217–23 | Road vs home | 25–1410th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–33 | 38–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 23–33 |
| Underdog | 43–24 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders | 42–37 | 40–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 1–5 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.