Columbus Blue Jackets at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets
Maple Leafs- Nick RobertsonGoals2
- Morgan RiellyAssists2
- Nick RobertsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:27Auston Matthews Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (70), Matthew Knies (26)0–5
- P34:21William Nylander Goal (44) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (30), Auston Matthews (41)0–4
- P31:11William Nylander Goal (43) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (29), Brandon Carlo (10)0–3
- P212:28Nicholas Robertson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (23)0–2
- P110:03Nicholas Robertson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Pontus Holmberg (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:03Nicholas Robertson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Pontus Holmberg (10)CBJ 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 60% → 75% +14TOR 60% → 75%+14 pts
- P212:28Nicholas Robertson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (23)CBJ 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 77% → 90% +13TOR 77% → 90%+13 pts
- P31:11William Nylander Goal (43) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (29), Brandon Carlo (10)CBJ 0 – 3 TOR · TOR 93% → 98% +5TOR 93% → 98%+5 pts
- P34:21William Nylander Goal (44) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (30), Auston Matthews (41)CBJ 0 – 4 TOR · TOR 99% → >99% +1TOR 99% → >99%+1 pts
- P316:27Auston Matthews Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (70), Matthew Knies (26)CBJ 0 – 5 TOR · TOR >99% → >99% +0TOR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 61%
- ML CBJ +150 / TOR -175
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 66.3%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- TOR -159
- CBJ +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +11 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +117 Elo | TOR 66.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 64.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.916th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.311th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 49.0%21st of 32 |
| 28th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 90.8%6th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 26th of 3212–25 | Road vs home | 24–1411th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–30 | 36–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 22–33 |
| Underdog | 38–24 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders | 43–31 | 39–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 4–1 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.