Toronto Maple Leafs at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals2
- Jake McCabeAssists1
- John TavaresPoints2
Kings- Alex LaferriereGoals1
- Phillip DanaultAssists1
- Alex LaferrierePoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:35John Tavares Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (68)3–1
- P312:04John Tavares Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (39), Morgan Rielly (28)2–1
- P30:55Auston Matthews Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (20)1–1
- P21:57Alex Laferriere Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Phillip Danault (31)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:57Alex Laferriere Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Phillip Danault (31)TOR 0 – 1 LA · LA 56% → 73% +17LA 56% → 73%+17 pts
- P30:55Auston Matthews Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (20)TOR 1 – 1 LA · TOR 22% → 45% +23TOR 22% → 45%+23 pts
- P312:04John Tavares Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (39), Morgan Rielly (28)TOR 2 – 1 LA · TOR 47% → 82% +35TOR 47% → 82%+35 pts
- P318:35John Tavares Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (68)TOR 3 – 1 LA · TOR >99% → >99% +1TOR >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 58%
- ML TOR +130 / LA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- LA: Elo 54.8%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- LA -138
- TOR +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.5 – 3.0 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +5 | TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +33 Elo | LA 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 57.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.62nd of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.39th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 52.4%6th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 90.6%10th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 4th of 3220–15 | Road vs home | 26–71st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–37 | 34–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 22–31 | 17–26 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders | 39–33 | 28–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–1 LA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.