Colorado Avalanche at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Charlie CoyleGoals1
- Charlie CoyleAssists2
- Charlie CoylePoints3
Blue Jackets- Boone JennerGoals1
- Kent JohnsonAssists1
- Boone JennerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P35:49Miles Wood Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (11)7–3
- P34:01Devon Toews Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (60), Nathan MacKinnon (83)6–3
- P219:22Cale Makar Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (82), Charlie Coyle (10)5–3
- P214:02Parker Kelly Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Drury (9)4–3
- P212:39Charlie Coyle Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Miles Wood (3), Erik Johnson (3)3–3
- P27:56Boone Jenner Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Johnson (6), Kent Johnson (28)2–3
- P24:16Zach Aston-Reese Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: none2–2
- P118:05Brock Nelson Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (59), Devon Toews (33)2–1
- P16:35Sean Monahan Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Dante Fabbro (16), Dmitri Voronkov (23)1–1
- P13:25Nathan MacKinnon Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (17), Devon Toews (32)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:05Brock Nelson Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (59), Devon Toews (33)COL 2 – 1 CBJ · COL 54% → 71% +16COL 54% → 71%+16 pts
- P24:16Zach Aston-Reese Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: noneCOL 2 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 28% → 46% +18CBJ 28% → 46%+18 pts
- P27:56Boone Jenner Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Johnson (6), Kent Johnson (28)COL 2 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 46% → 66% +19CBJ 46% → 66%+19 pts
- P212:39Charlie Coyle Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Miles Wood (3), Erik Johnson (3)COL 3 – 3 CBJ · COL 33% → 54% +21COL 33% → 54%+21 pts
- P214:02Parker Kelly Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Drury (9)COL 4 – 3 CBJ · COL 53% → 74% +20COL 53% → 74%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 55%
- ML COL -135 / CBJ +115
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- COL: Elo 54.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- COL -124
- CBJ +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.4 – 3.1 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −1 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +28 Elo | COL 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.4% | Shot share | 49.5%19th of 32 |
| 17th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.2%26th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 6th of 3221–16 | Road vs home | 22–1412th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–43 | 44–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 26–37 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 38–23 |
| Overs–unders | 37–39 | 42–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 1–2 CBJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.