Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Seth JonesAssists1
- Seth JonesPoints1
Maple Leafs- Matthew KniesGoals1
- Matthew KniesAssists1
- Matthew KniesPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:22Sam Reinhart Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (15), Seth Jones (24)2–3
- P315:09Matthew Knies Goal (26) Backhand, assists: Mitch Marner (69), Jake McCabe (21)1–3
- P310:50Mitch Marner Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (40), Matthew Knies (25)1–2
- P211:31John Tavares Goal (36) Tip-In, assists: William Nylander (38)1–1
- P21:03Gustav Forsling Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (41), Sam Bennett (25)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:03Gustav Forsling Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (41), Sam Bennett (25)FLA 1 – 0 TOR · FLA 46% → 64% +18FLA 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P211:31John Tavares Goal (36) Tip-In, assists: William Nylander (38)FLA 1 – 1 TOR · TOR 33% → 54% +21TOR 33% → 54%+21 pts
- P310:50Mitch Marner Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (40), Matthew Knies (25)FLA 1 – 2 TOR · TOR 52% → 84% +32TOR 52% → 84%+32 pts
- P315:09Matthew Knies Goal (26) Backhand, assists: Mitch Marner (69), Jake McCabe (21)FLA 1 – 3 TOR · TOR 91% → >99% +9TOR 91% → >99%+9 pts
- P317:22Sam Reinhart Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (15), Seth Jones (24)FLA 2 – 3 TOR · FLA <1% → 4% +4FLA <1% → 4%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML FLA +115 / TOR -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 56.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -124
- FLA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.6 – 2.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +12 | +11 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.31 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +44 Elo | TOR 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.311th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3254.4% | Shot share | 49.0%21st of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 90.8%5th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 9th of 3219–17 | Road vs home | 23–1410th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–41 | 36–38 |
| Last 10 | 0–10 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–38 | 22–32 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders | 35–39 | 39–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 4–2 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.