Toronto Maple Leafs at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Steven LorentzGoals1
- Simon BenoitAssists1
- Max DomiPoints1
Ducks- Sam ColangeloGoals1
- Olen ZellwegerAssists1
- Sam ColangeloPoints1
Scoring summary
- P311:35Steven Lorentz Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: David Kampf (8), Simon Benoit (8)3–2
- P32:16Sam Colangelo Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (17), Jackson LaCombe (29)2–2
- P27:50Leo Carlsson Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Olen Zellweger (12), Cutter Gauthier (23)2–1
- P26:29Mitch Marner Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P119:24Max Domi Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Calle Jarnkrok (4), Scott Laughton (17)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:24Max Domi Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Calle Jarnkrok (4), Scott Laughton (17)TOR 1 – 0 ANA · TOR 59% → 75% +16TOR 59% → 75%+16 pts
- P26:29Mitch Marner Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 2 – 0 ANA · TOR 76% → 88% +13TOR 76% → 88%+13 pts
- P27:50Leo Carlsson Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Olen Zellweger (12), Cutter Gauthier (23)TOR 2 – 1 ANA · ANA 12% → 24% +13ANA 12% → 24%+13 pts
- P32:16Sam Colangelo Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (17), Jackson LaCombe (29)TOR 2 – 2 ANA · ANA 21% → 44% +23ANA 21% → 44%+23 pts
- P311:35Steven Lorentz Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: David Kampf (8), Simon Benoit (8)TOR 3 – 2 ANA · TOR 54% → 86% +32TOR 54% → 86%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 61%
- ML TOR -170 / ANA +145
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 50.9%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- TOR -154
- ANA +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.6 – 2.9 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −13 | −1 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +6 Elo | TOR 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 58.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 46.3%30th of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 90.7%6th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 4th of 3221–15 | Road vs home | 18–1819th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–37 | 50–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 22–31 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 46–20 |
| Overs–unders | 39–34 | 29–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–0 ANA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.