Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Matthew KniesGoals3
- Morgan RiellyAssists1
- Matthew KniesPoints3
Lightning- Oliver BjorkstrandGoals1
- Oliver BjorkstrandAssists1
- Oliver BjorkstrandPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:56Matthew Knies Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (44), Morgan Rielly (31)4–3
- P311:05Victor Hedman Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (25), Brandon Hagel (50)3–3
- P32:03Matthew Knies Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: John Tavares (35), Mitch Marner (72)3–2
- P30:50Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (82), Victor Hedman (48)2–2
- P118:58Nick Perbix Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (28), Brandon Hagel (49)2–1
- P13:33Matthew Knies Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (43), Mitch Marner (71)2–0
- P11:13Mitch Marner Goal (25) Slap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (42)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:58Nick Perbix Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (28), Brandon Hagel (49)TOR 2 – 1 TB · TB 27% → 43% +16TB 27% → 43%+16 pts
- P30:50Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (82), Victor Hedman (48)TOR 2 – 2 TB · TB 32% → 57% +25TB 32% → 57%+25 pts
- P32:03Matthew Knies Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: John Tavares (35), Mitch Marner (72)TOR 3 – 2 TB · TOR 43% → 69% +26TOR 43% → 69%+26 pts
- P311:05Victor Hedman Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (25), Brandon Hagel (50)TOR 3 – 3 TB · TB 21% → 55% +34TB 21% → 55%+34 pts
- OT2:56Matthew Knies Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (44), Morgan Rielly (31)TOR 4 – 3 TB · TOR 48% → 97% +50TOR 48% → 97%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 63%
- ML TOR +160 / TB -190
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- TB: Elo 62.0%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -170
- TOR +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.4 – 3.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +13 | +12 | TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.31 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +85 Elo | TB 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 65.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 14th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +1.02nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.8% | Shot share | 50.2%16th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 91.6%2nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3222–16 | Road vs home | 27–105th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–40 | 41–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–33 | 31–26 |
| Underdog | 14–7 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders | 39–38 | 34–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–2 TB in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.