Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- John TavaresPoints1
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals1
- Brad MarchandAssists1
- Carter VerhaeghePoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:13Carter Verhaeghe Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (28), Aleksander Barkov (49)1–3
- P31:04Eetu Luostarinen Goal (9) Backhand, assists: none1–2
- P21:06John Tavares Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P19:26Gustav Forsling Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (28)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:26Gustav Forsling Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (28)TOR 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 59% → 73% +14FLA 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P21:06John Tavares Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 1 – 1 FLA · TOR 26% → 42% +16TOR 26% → 42%+16 pts
- P31:04Eetu Luostarinen Goal (9) Backhand, assists: noneTOR 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 56% → 79% +23FLA 56% → 79%+23 pts
- P319:13Carter Verhaeghe Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (28), Aleksander Barkov (49)TOR 1 – 3 FLA · FLA >99% → >99% +0FLA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 60%
- ML TOR +140 / FLA -165
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- FLA: Elo 59.3%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- FLA -149
- TOR +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.5 – 3.0 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | +12 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.30 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +65 Elo | FLA 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 61.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.112th of 32 |
| 14th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.77th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.411th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3249.0% | Shot share | 54.6%2nd of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 90.6%10th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3222–15 | Road vs home | 23–1311th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–39 | 35–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 23–33 | 25–39 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 10–3 |
| Overs–unders | 39–37 | 35–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–4 FLA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 7.