Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers
Senators- Matthew HighmoreGoals1
- Thomas ChabotAssists1
- Matthew HighmorePoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:40Matthew Highmore Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (30)0–3
- P114:17Drake Batherson Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Cozens (27), Jake Sanderson (42)0–2
- P111:21Jake Sanderson Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (15)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:21Jake Sanderson Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (15)FLA 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 42% → 58% +16OTT 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P114:17Drake Batherson Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Cozens (27), Jake Sanderson (42)FLA 0 – 2 OTT · OTT 59% → 74% +15OTT 59% → 74%+15 pts
- P317:40Matthew Highmore Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (30)FLA 0 – 3 OTT · OTT >99% → >99% +0OTT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 59%
- ML FLA -155 / OTT +135
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- FLA: Elo 54.9%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- FLA -143
- OTT +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 2.5 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −6 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +34 Elo | FLA 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 8th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.4 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3254.4% | Shot share | 50.6%11th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 90.6%8th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 10th of 3219–18 | Road vs home | 22–1311th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–41 | 31–44 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 25–38 | 11–32 |
| Underdog | 9–3 | 20–12 |
| Overs–unders | 35–40 | 34–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 5–1 OTT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.