Florida Panthers at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheAssists1
- Carter VerhaeghePoints1
Red Wings- J.T. CompherGoals1
- Jeff PetryAssists1
- J.T. CompherPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:20Anton Lundell Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (16), Carter Verhaeghe (31)1–2
- P211:23J.T. Compher Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Marco Kasper (16), Jeff Petry (6)0–2
- P24:37Alex DeBrincat Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (49), Patrick Kane (34)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:37Alex DeBrincat Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (49), Patrick Kane (34)FLA 0 – 1 DET · DET 53% → 71% +18DET 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P211:23J.T. Compher Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Marco Kasper (16), Jeff Petry (6)FLA 0 – 2 DET · DET 73% → 87% +14DET 73% → 87%+14 pts
- P319:20Anton Lundell Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (16), Carter Verhaeghe (31)FLA 1 – 2 DET · FLA <1% → <1% +0FLA <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 54%
- ML FLA +110 / DET -130
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- DET: Elo 55.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -119
- FLA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.6 – 2.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −28 | +5 | FLA: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.69 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +38 Elo | DET 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 51.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 7th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3254.5% | Shot share | 48.5%25th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.7%22nd of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 11th of 3219–19 | Road vs home | 20–1918th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–42 | 44–31 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–39 | 6–13 |
| Underdog | 9–3 | 38–18 |
| Overs–unders | 35–41 | 38–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 3–2 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.