Detroit Red Wings at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Patrick KaneAssists1
- Patrick KanePoints1
Canadiens- Brendan GallagherGoals1
- Brendan GallagherAssists1
- Brendan GallagherPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:07Nick Suzuki Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (23), Alexandre Carrier (21)1–4
- P318:54Brendan Gallagher Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (12)1–3
- P310:48Josh Anderson Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (21), Brendan Gallagher (17)1–2
- P216:29Cole Caufield Goal (37) Backhand, assists: Mike Matheson (24), Nick Suzuki (58)1–1
- P19:54Dylan Larkin Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Patrick Kane (35)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:54Dylan Larkin Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Patrick Kane (35)DET 1 – 0 MTL · DET 44% → 60% +16DET 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P216:29Cole Caufield Goal (37) Backhand, assists: Mike Matheson (24), Nick Suzuki (58)DET 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 31% → 54% +23MTL 31% → 54%+23 pts
- P310:48Josh Anderson Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (21), Brendan Gallagher (17)DET 1 – 2 MTL · MTL 52% → 84% +32MTL 52% → 84%+32 pts
- P318:54Brendan Gallagher Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (12)DET 1 – 3 MTL · MTL >99% → >99% +0MTL >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P319:07Nick Suzuki Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (23), Alexandre Carrier (21)DET 1 – 4 MTL · MTL >99% → 100% +0MTL >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 56%
- ML DET +120 / MTL -140
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- MTL: Elo 53.0%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- MTL -128
- DET +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.6 – 2.9 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +1 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +21 Elo | MTL 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 53.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.015th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 25th of 3248.4% | Shot share | 47.3%29th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 89.3%26th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 21st of 3215–21 | Road vs home | 21–1716th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–32 | 45–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–14 | 2–9 |
| Underdog | 38–18 | 43–23 |
| Overs–unders | 38–38 | 41–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–3 MTL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.