Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Christian DvorakGoals1
- Jayden StrubleAssists1
- Christian DvorakPoints1
Senators- Shane PintoGoals2
- Michael AmadioAssists2
- Shane PintoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:44Shane Pinto Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Artem Zub (11)2–5
- P215:32Nick Suzuki Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (32), Cole Caufield (31)2–4
- P214:14Drake Batherson Goal (23) Deflected, assists: Thomas Chabot (34), Nick Jensen (18)1–4
- P22:26Christian Dvorak Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Armia (16), Jayden Struble (11)1–3
- P21:05Ridly Greig Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (15), Jake Sanderson (44)0–3
- P14:18Dylan Cozens Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolas Matinpalo (2), Tyler Kleven (5)0–2
- P10:28Shane Pinto Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (20), Michael Amadio (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:28Shane Pinto Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (20), Michael Amadio (14)MTL 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 57% → 71% +14OTT 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P14:18Dylan Cozens Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolas Matinpalo (2), Tyler Kleven (5)MTL 0 – 2 OTT · OTT 71% → 82% +11OTT 71% → 82%+11 pts
- P21:05Ridly Greig Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (15), Jake Sanderson (44)MTL 0 – 3 OTT · OTT 85% → 93% +8OTT 85% → 93%+8 pts
- P22:26Christian Dvorak Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Armia (16), Jayden Struble (11)MTL 1 – 3 OTT · MTL 6% → 14% +8MTL 6% → 14%+8 pts
- P214:14Drake Batherson Goal (23) Deflected, assists: Thomas Chabot (34), Nick Jensen (18)MTL 1 – 4 OTT · OTT 89% → 96% +7OTT 89% → 96%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 57%
- ML MTL +125 / OTT -145
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- OTT: Elo 57.9%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- OTT -133
- MTL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.5 – 3.0 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +4 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +56 Elo | OTT 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 24th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 29th of 3247.2% | Shot share | 50.4%14th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 90.8%7th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 17th of 3217–22 | Road vs home | 24–139th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–32 | 33–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 12–33 |
| Underdog | 43–23 | 21–12 |
| Overs–unders | 41–37 | 35–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 3–3 OTT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.