Columbus Blue Jackets at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets
Senators- David PerronGoals1
- Thomas ChabotAssists2
- Thomas ChabotPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:19Shane Pinto Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (43), Ridly Greig (19)0–4
- P34:32David Perron Goal (9) Batted, assists: Drake Batherson (39), Thomas Chabot (32)0–3
- P14:26Nikolas Matinpalo Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Claude Giroux (33), Fabian Zetterlund (21)0–2
- P12:24Adam Gaudette Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (31), Nick Jensen (17)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:24Adam Gaudette Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (31), Nick Jensen (17)CBJ 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 58% → 72% +14OTT 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P14:26Nikolas Matinpalo Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Claude Giroux (33), Fabian Zetterlund (21)CBJ 0 – 2 OTT · OTT 72% → 83% +11OTT 72% → 83%+11 pts
- P34:32David Perron Goal (9) Batted, assists: Drake Batherson (39), Thomas Chabot (32)CBJ 0 – 3 OTT · OTT 94% → 99% +5OTT 94% → 99%+5 pts
- P319:19Shane Pinto Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (43), Ridly Greig (19)CBJ 0 – 4 OTT · OTT 100% → 100% +0OTT 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 58%
- ML CBJ +130 / OTT -150
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- OTT: Elo 61.5%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- OTT -138
- CBJ +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.0 – 3.5 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | OTT and CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +2 | CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +81 Elo | OTT 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 59.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 50.4%13th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 90.8%8th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 26th of 3212–26 | Road vs home | 23–1310th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–31 | 32–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 11–32 |
| Underdog | 38–25 | 21–12 |
| Overs–unders | 43–32 | 34–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 1–3 OTT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.