Ottawa Senators at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Thomas ChabotGoals1
- Thomas ChabotAssists1
- Thomas ChabotPoints2
Blue Jackets- Mathieu OlivierGoals1
- Kent JohnsonAssists2
- Mathieu OlivierPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:10Thomas Chabot Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Drake Batherson (40), David Perron (7)2–5
- P311:42Adam Fantilli Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (30), Ivan Provorov (24)1–5
- P32:37Sean Monahan Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (29), Zach Werenski (55)1–4
- P219:38Mathieu Olivier Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Justin Danforth (11), Erik Gudbranson (2)1–3
- P216:18Fabian Zetterlund Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (34), Thomas Chabot (33)1–2
- P116:38Justin Danforth Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Denton Mateychuk (8), Sean Kuraly (11)0–2
- P17:00Dmitri Voronkov Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Mathieu Olivier (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:00Dmitri Voronkov Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Mathieu Olivier (13)OTT 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 49% → 64% +15CBJ 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P116:38Justin Danforth Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Denton Mateychuk (8), Sean Kuraly (11)OTT 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 66% → 80% +14CBJ 66% → 80%+14 pts
- P216:18Fabian Zetterlund Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (34), Thomas Chabot (33)OTT 1 – 2 CBJ · OTT 13% → 29% +16OTT 13% → 29%+16 pts
- P219:38Mathieu Olivier Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Justin Danforth (11), Erik Gudbranson (2)OTT 1 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 73% → 89% +16CBJ 73% → 89%+16 pts
- P32:37Sean Monahan Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (29), Zach Werenski (55)OTT 1 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 91% → 98% +7CBJ 91% → 98%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 51%
- ML OTT -115 / CBJ -105
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- OTT: Elo 52.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- OTT -104
- CBJ +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.3 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −4 | OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +14 Elo | OTT 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 50.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.210th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 49.5%18th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 89.0%29th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 15th of 3218–22 | Road vs home | 22–1513th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–44 | 44–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–32 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 21–12 | 38–26 |
| Overs–unders | 34–43 | 43–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 4–1 CBJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.