Chicago Blackhawks at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Frank NazarGoals1
- Frank NazarAssists1
- Frank NazarPoints2
Canadiens- Ivan DemidovGoals1
- Ivan DemidovAssists1
- Ivan DemidovPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Frank Nazar Goal Backhand1–0
- P317:03Juraj Slafkovský Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Cole Caufield (32), Lane Hutson (59)3–3
- P35:39Lukas Reichel Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Landon Slaggert (4), Joseph Veleno (9)3–2
- P216:41Frank Nazar Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (43), Sam Rinzel (4)2–2
- P118:40Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (14), Connor Bedard (43)1–2
- P113:32Ivan Demidov Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Joel Armia (18), Mike Matheson (25)0–2
- P16:00Alex Newhook Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (1), Joel Armia (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:00Alex Newhook Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (1), Joel Armia (17)CHI 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 71% → 83% +11MTL 71% → 83%+11 pts
- P118:40Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (14), Connor Bedard (43)CHI 1 – 2 MTL · CHI 8% → 18% +9CHI 8% → 18%+9 pts
- P216:41Frank Nazar Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (43), Sam Rinzel (4)CHI 2 – 2 MTL · CHI 17% → 36% +19CHI 17% → 36%+19 pts
- P35:39Lukas Reichel Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Landon Slaggert (4), Joseph Veleno (9)CHI 3 – 2 MTL · CHI 39% → 68% +29CHI 39% → 68%+29 pts
- P317:03Juraj Slafkovský Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Cole Caufield (32), Lane Hutson (59)CHI 3 – 3 MTL · MTL 7% → 55% +49MTL 7% → 55%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 72%
- ML CHI +250 / MTL -300
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- MTL: Elo 69.9%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- MTL -263
- CHI +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.6 – 3.9 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1385 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −15 | 0 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.37 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +147 Elo | MTL 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 71.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.224th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.9 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3244.1% | Shot share | 46.9%29th of 32 |
| 25th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.5%22nd of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 31st of 328–31 | Road vs home | 22–1716th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–38 | 47–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 41–35 | 44–24 |
| Overs–unders | 44–36 | 42–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–2 MTL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.