Chicago Blackhawks at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Nick FolignoGoals2
- Alex VlasicAssists1
- Nick FolignoPoints2
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:33Nick Foligno Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (25)5–2
- P311:08Morgan Geekie Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (60)4–2
- P34:47Kevin Korchinski Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (41), Oliver Moore (3)4–1
- P34:23Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: none3–1
- P33:14Ryan Donato Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (7), Sam Rinzel (2)2–1
- P27:55Nick Foligno Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P110:39David Pastrnak Goal (42) Deflected, assists: Elias Lindholm (28), Morgan Geekie (24)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:39David Pastrnak Goal (42) Deflected, assists: Elias Lindholm (28), Morgan Geekie (24)CHI 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 60% → 74% +14BOS 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P27:55Nick Foligno Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCHI 1 – 1 BOS · CHI 24% → 42% +18CHI 24% → 42%+18 pts
- P33:14Ryan Donato Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Philipp Kurashev (7), Sam Rinzel (2)CHI 2 – 1 BOS · CHI 44% → 71% +26CHI 44% → 71%+26 pts
- P34:23Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: noneCHI 3 – 1 BOS · CHI 72% → 90% +18CHI 72% → 90%+18 pts
- P34:47Kevin Korchinski Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (41), Oliver Moore (3)CHI 4 – 1 BOS · CHI 91% → 98% +7CHI 91% → 98%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 61%
- ML CHI +145 / BOS -170
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 69.4%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -154
- CHI +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.4 – 3.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1379 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −18 | −1 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.45 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +142 Elo | BOS 69.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 64.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.9 | Margin | −0.628th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3244.2% | Shot share | 47.8%28th of 32 |
| 25th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 89.4%24th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 32nd of 327–31 | Road vs home | 20–1921st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–38 | 36–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 10–23 |
| Underdog | 39–35 | 26–20 |
| Overs–unders | 42–36 | 40–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–3 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.