Winnipeg Jets at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Nino NiederreiterGoals1
- Dylan DeMeloAssists1
- Nino NiederreiterPoints1
Blackhawks- Frank NazarGoals1
- Frank NazarAssists1
- Frank NazarPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Cole Perfetti Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Kyle Connor Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Connor Bedard Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- P316:13Josh Morrissey Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (16), Kyle Connor (55)4–4
- P314:05Frank Nazar Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (22), Artyom Levshunov (6)3–4
- P310:53Ryan Donato Goal (31) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (42), Alex Vlasic (26)3–3
- P32:08Josh Morrissey Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (26), Cole Perfetti (31)3–2
- P216:03Kyle Connor Goal (41) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (16)2–2
- P211:15Nino Niederreiter Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (14), Neal Pionk (29)1–2
- P113:21Connor Bedard Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Rinzel (3), Frank Nazar (13)0–2
- P110:40Nick Foligno Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P216:03Kyle Connor Goal (41) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (16)WPG 2 – 2 CHI · WPG 42% → 65% +23WPG 42% → 65%+23 pts
- P32:08Josh Morrissey Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (26), Cole Perfetti (31)WPG 3 – 2 CHI · WPG 63% → 84% +21WPG 63% → 84%+21 pts
- P310:53Ryan Donato Goal (31) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (42), Alex Vlasic (26)WPG 3 – 3 CHI · CHI 12% → 41% +29CHI 12% → 41%+29 pts
- P314:05Frank Nazar Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (22), Artyom Levshunov (6)WPG 3 – 4 CHI · CHI 43% → 84% +41CHI 43% → 84%+41 pts
- P316:13Josh Morrissey Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (16), Kyle Connor (55)WPG 4 – 4 CHI · WPG 10% → 56% +46WPG 10% → 56%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 72%
- ML WPG -300 / CHI +250
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- WPG: Elo 73.1%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- WPG -263
- CHI +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.4 – 2.1 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1589 | 1386 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +2 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +174 Elo | WPG 73.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 74.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 73.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.1 | Margin | −0.931st of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.0% | Shot share | 44.1%32nd of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.2% | Save percentage | 89.3%24th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 1st of 3225–15 | Road vs home | 15–2531st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–38 | 41–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–30 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 40–35 |
| Overs–unders | 34–45 | 43–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 5–1 CHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.