Winnipeg Jets at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Nino NiederreiterAssists2
- Nino NiederreiterPoints2
Golden KnightsScoring summary
- P319:08Cole Perfetti Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Kyle Connor (53)4–0
- P211:53Colin Miller Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Mason Appleton (12), Nino Niederreiter (20)3–0
- P118:15Adam Lowry Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (19), Logan Stanley (12)2–0
- P113:01Mark Scheifele Goal (37) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (14), Luke Schenn (6)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:01Mark Scheifele Goal (37) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (14), Luke Schenn (6)WPG 1 – 0 VGK · WPG 41% → 58% +16WPG 41% → 58%+16 pts
- P118:15Adam Lowry Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (19), Logan Stanley (12)WPG 2 – 0 VGK · WPG 59% → 75% +16WPG 59% → 75%+16 pts
- P211:53Colin Miller Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Mason Appleton (12), Nino Niederreiter (20)WPG 3 – 0 VGK · WPG 81% → 92% +11WPG 81% → 92%+11 pts
- P319:08Cole Perfetti Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Kyle Connor (53)WPG 4 – 0 VGK · WPG 100% → 100% +0WPG 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 60%
- ML WPG +140 / VGK -165
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- VGK: Elo 54.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- VGK -149
- WPG +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.5 – 3.0 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −21 | +6 | WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.52 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +32 Elo | VGK 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 58.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 2.77th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.1 | Margin | +0.75th of 32 |
| 8th of 3250.8% | Shot share | 53.4%4th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.1% | Save percentage | 90.2%15th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3223–14 | Road vs home | 27–116th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–37 | 43–31 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 28–29 | 33–29 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 10–2 |
| Overs–unders | 34–41 | 35–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 0–5 VGK in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.