Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Jake WalmanGoals1
- Evan BouchardAssists2
- Evan BouchardPoints2
Golden Knights- Pavel DorofeyevGoals1
- Pavel DorofeyevAssists1
- Pavel DorofeyevPoints2
Scoring summary
- P32:35Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaedan Korczak (10)3–2
- P218:20Viktor Arvidsson Goal (12) Poke, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (7), Adam Henrique (11)3–1
- P216:03Leon Draisaitl Goal (52) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (29), Evan Bouchard (47)2–1
- P20:19Jake Walman Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (16), Evan Bouchard (46)1–1
- P14:34Nicolas Roy Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:34Nicolas Roy Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (17)EDM 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 60% → 74% +14VGK 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P20:19Jake Walman Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (16), Evan Bouchard (46)EDM 1 – 1 VGK · EDM 25% → 41% +16EDM 25% → 41%+16 pts
- P216:03Leon Draisaitl Goal (52) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (29), Evan Bouchard (47)EDM 2 – 1 VGK · EDM 43% → 66% +23EDM 43% → 66%+23 pts
- P218:20Viktor Arvidsson Goal (12) Poke, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (7), Adam Henrique (11)EDM 3 – 1 VGK · EDM 67% → 85% +18EDM 67% → 85%+18 pts
- P32:35Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaedan Korczak (10)EDM 3 – 2 VGK · VGK 11% → 30% +18VGK 11% → 30%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 61%
- ML EDM +145 / VGK -170
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- VGK: Elo 56.6%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- VGK -154
- EDM +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 2.9 – 3.6 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +7 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +46 Elo | VGK 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 59.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 14th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.85th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.1% | Shot share | 53.4%4th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.3%14th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 7th of 3219–16 | Road vs home | 27–105th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–47 | 43–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 18–45 | 33–28 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 10–2 |
| Overs–unders | 34–39 | 35–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 3–3 VGK in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.