Vancouver Canucks at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Pius SuterGoals1
- Tyler MyersAssists1
- Pius SuterPoints1
Jets- Mason AppletonGoals1
- Colin MillerAssists1
- Mason AppletonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P312:11Cole Perfetti Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (25), Kyle Connor (52)1–3
- P36:24Mason Appleton Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (17), Nikolaj Ehlers (39)1–2
- P29:26Kyle Connor Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (45), Colin Miller (10)1–1
- P118:55Pius Suter Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Myers (18), Jake DeBrusk (20)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:55Pius Suter Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Myers (18), Jake DeBrusk (20)VAN 1 – 0 WPG · VAN 36% → 53% +17VAN 36% → 53%+17 pts
- P29:26Kyle Connor Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (45), Colin Miller (10)VAN 1 – 1 WPG · WPG 42% → 63% +20WPG 42% → 63%+20 pts
- P36:24Mason Appleton Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (17), Nikolaj Ehlers (39)VAN 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 58% → 84% +25WPG 58% → 84%+25 pts
- P312:11Cole Perfetti Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (25), Kyle Connor (52)VAN 1 – 3 WPG · WPG 88% → 99% +11WPG 88% → 99%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 67%
- ML VAN +195 / WPG -230
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- WPG: Elo 66.5%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -206
- VAN +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.2 – 3.3 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1583 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +9 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +119 Elo | WPG 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 68.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 68.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.53rd of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +1.11st of 32 |
| 22nd of 3249.0% | Shot share | 50.7%8th of 32 |
| 25th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 92.1%1st of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 11th of 3219–19 | Road vs home | 27–104th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–39 | 37–36 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–22 | 27–29 |
| Underdog | 25–17 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 37–36 | 34–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–3 WPG in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.