St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Pavel BuchnevichGoals1
- Philip BrobergAssists1
- Pavel BuchnevichPoints1
Jets- Adam LowryGoals1
- Mark ScheifeleAssists1
- Adam LowryPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:51Adam Lowry Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (46)1–3
- P37:05Alex Iafallo Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (54)1–2
- P27:27Pavel Buchnevich Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (55), Philip Broberg (21)1–1
- P22:34Morgan Barron Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (45)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:34Morgan Barron Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (45)STL 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 61% → 77% +16WPG 61% → 77%+16 pts
- P27:27Pavel Buchnevich Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (55), Philip Broberg (21)STL 1 – 1 WPG · STL 22% → 39% +17STL 22% → 39%+17 pts
- P37:05Alex Iafallo Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (54)STL 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 57% → 83% +26WPG 57% → 83%+26 pts
- P319:51Adam Lowry Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (46)STL 1 – 3 WPG · WPG >99% → 100% +0WPG >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 64%
- ML STL +170 / WPG -200
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- WPG: Elo 62.9%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -180
- STL +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.3 – 3.2 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1580 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +7 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +92 Elo | WPG 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 62.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.44th of 32 |
| 11th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +1.11st of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 50.7%9th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 92.1%1st of 32 |
| 1st of 3210–0 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 9th of 3220–18 | Road vs home | 28–104th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 45–33 | 39–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 28–30 |
| Underdog | 34–17 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 36–42 | 34–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 1–5 WPG in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.