Colorado Avalanche at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Sam MalinskiGoals1
- Logan O'ConnorAssists1
- Miles WoodPoints1
Blues- Zack BolducGoals2
- Robert ThomasAssists3
- Robert ThomasPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:51Sam Malinski Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (34)4–5
- P319:29Robert Thomas Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (29)3–5
- P317:42Nathan MacKinnon Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (30), Cale Makar (61)3–4
- P217:45Miles Wood Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (12)2–4
- P215:32Ross Colton Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Logan O'Connor (10)1–4
- P28:53Zack Bolduc Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (54), Cam Fowler (28)0–4
- P21:01Pavel Buchnevich Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (2)0–3
- P17:41Jake Neighbours Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Robert Thomas (53)0–2
- P10:49Zack Bolduc Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (52), Cam Fowler (27)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:49Zack Bolduc Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (52), Cam Fowler (27)COL 0 – 1 STL · STL 44% → 58% +15STL 44% → 58%+15 pts
- P17:41Jake Neighbours Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Robert Thomas (53)COL 0 – 2 STL · STL 60% → 74% +14STL 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P21:01Pavel Buchnevich Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (2)COL 0 – 3 STL · STL 78% → 89% +11STL 78% → 89%+11 pts
- P28:53Zack Bolduc Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (54), Cam Fowler (28)COL 0 – 4 STL · STL 92% → 97% +5STL 92% → 97%+5 pts
- P217:45Miles Wood Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (12)COL 2 – 4 STL · COL 4% → 13% +9COL 4% → 13%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 56%
- ML COL -140 / STL +120
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- COL: Elo 50.0%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -128
- STL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.9 – 2.6 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +7 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL 0 Elo | COL 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.113th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.811th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.4% | Shot share | 49.6%18th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 90.2%15th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 32 |
| 5th of 3222–16 | Road vs home | 22–1714th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–43 | 44–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–37 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 33–17 |
| Overs–unders | 38–39 | 35–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–3 STL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.