Winnipeg Jets at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Mark ScheifelePoints1
Utah HC- Kevin StenlundGoals1
- Kevin StenlundAssists1
- Kevin StenlundPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:19Nick Bjugstad Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (11), Olli Määttä (14)1–4
- P32:45Mark Scheifele Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–3
- P216:57Kevin Stenlund Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (34), John Marino (13)0–3
- P20:57Barrett Hayton Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Dylan Guenther (27), Clayton Keller (56)0–2
- P14:24Clayton Keller Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (24), Nick Schmaltz (42)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:24Clayton Keller Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (24), Nick Schmaltz (42)WPG 0 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 47% → 62% +15UTAH 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P20:57Barrett Hayton Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Dylan Guenther (27), Clayton Keller (56)WPG 0 – 2 UTAH · UTAH 65% → 80% +15UTAH 65% → 80%+15 pts
- P216:57Kevin Stenlund Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (34), John Marino (13)WPG 0 – 3 UTAH · UTAH 87% → 96% +9UTAH 87% → 96%+9 pts
- P32:45Mark Scheifele Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWPG 1 – 3 UTAH · WPG 2% → 9% +7WPG 2% → 9%+7 pts
- P317:19Nick Bjugstad Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (11), Olli Määttä (14)WPG 1 – 4 UTAH · UTAH >99% → >99% +0UTAH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 53%
- ML WPG -125 / UTAH +105
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.1 pts
- WPG: Elo 61.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- WPG -114
- UTAH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.8 – 2.7 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1586 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −3 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +80 Elo | WPG 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 57.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.1 | Margin | −0.320th of 32 |
| 8th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 50.4%14th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.2% | Save percentage | 89.8%19th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3224–14 | Road vs home | 16–2230th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–37 | 35–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–29 | 13–25 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 22–16 |
| Overs–unders | 34–42 | 34–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 2–1 UTAH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.