Calgary Flames at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames
Utah HC- Clayton KellerGoals1
- Ian ColeAssists1
- Kevin StenlundPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:42Clayton Keller Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (26), Logan Cooley (34)1–3
- P213:00Rasmus Andersson Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: none1–2
- P22:25Barrett Hayton Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Sean Durzi (5), Nick Schmaltz (41)0–2
- P117:46Kevin Stenlund Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (13), Ian Cole (15)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:46Kevin Stenlund Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (13), Ian Cole (15)CGY 0 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 60% → 75% +16UTAH 60% → 75%+16 pts
- P22:25Barrett Hayton Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Sean Durzi (5), Nick Schmaltz (41)CGY 0 – 2 UTAH · UTAH 76% → 88% +12UTAH 76% → 88%+12 pts
- P213:00Rasmus Andersson Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: noneCGY 1 – 2 UTAH · CGY 10% → 23% +13CGY 10% → 23%+13 pts
- P319:42Clayton Keller Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (26), Logan Cooley (34)CGY 1 – 3 UTAH · UTAH >99% → 100% +0UTAH >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 61%
- ML CGY +150 / UTAH -175
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- UTAH: Elo 59.3%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -159
- CGY +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.4 – 3.1 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CGY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −5 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +66 Elo | UTAH 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 62.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.320th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 50.3%14th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 89.7%19th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 18th of 3216–21 | Road vs home | 15–2130th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–36 | 34–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–15 | 12–25 |
| Underdog | 28–21 | 22–15 |
| Overs–unders | 30–43 | 33–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 0–2 UTAH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.