Los Angeles Kings at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Kevin FialaGoals1
- Quinton ByfieldAssists1
- Trevor MoorePoints1
Utah HC- Jack McBainGoals1
- Jack McBainAssists1
- Jack McBainPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:40Jack McBain Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (1), Sean Durzi (6)4–2
- P318:10Drew Doughty Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (28)4–1
- P34:50Trevor Moore Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Phillip Danault (32)3–1
- P34:06Kevin Fiala Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: none2–1
- P212:21Lawson Crouse Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Doan (11), Jack McBain (11)1–1
- P26:56Adrian Kempe Goal (33) Deflected, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (20), Drew Doughty (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:56Adrian Kempe Goal (33) Deflected, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (20), Drew Doughty (12)LA 1 – 0 UTAH · LA 55% → 73% +18LA 55% → 73%+18 pts
- P212:21Lawson Crouse Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Doan (11), Jack McBain (11)LA 1 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 26% → 46% +20UTAH 26% → 46%+20 pts
- P34:06Kevin Fiala Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: noneLA 2 – 1 UTAH · LA 53% → 79% +25LA 53% → 79%+25 pts
- P34:50Trevor Moore Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Phillip Danault (32)LA 3 – 1 UTAH · LA 79% → 94% +15LA 79% → 94%+15 pts
- P318:10Drew Doughty Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (28)LA 4 – 1 UTAH · LA >99% → >99% +0LA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 56%
- ML LA -140 / UTAH +120
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- LA: Elo 53.2%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- LA -128
- UTAH +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.9 – 2.6 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −2 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +22 Elo | LA 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.6% | Shot share | 50.3%16th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 89.8%19th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 24th of 3214–24 | Road vs home | 16–2129th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–38 | 35–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–27 | 13–25 |
| Underdog | 17–11 | 22–15 |
| Overs–unders | 29–45 | 33–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 2–0 UTAH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.