San Jose Sharks at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Cam LundGoals1
- Mario FerraroAssists1
- Cam LundPoints1
Kings- Warren FoegeleGoals2
- Anze KopitarAssists3
- Andrei KuzmenkoPoints3
Scoring summary
- P315:22Trevor Lewis Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Moverare (6), Jordan Spence (21)1–8
- P314:49Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (42), Vladislav Gavrikov (23)1–7
- P219:38Adrian Kempe Goal (31) Slap Shot, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (22), Andrei Kuzmenko (18)1–6
- P219:03Warren Foegele Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Mikey Anderson (14), Drew Doughty (11)1–5
- P213:31Warren Foegele Goal (21) Deflected, assists: Brandt Clarke (26), Quinton Byfield (27)1–4
- P26:57Trevor Moore Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (41), Andrei Kuzmenko (17)1–3
- P24:52Cam Lund Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (9)1–2
- P115:13Adrian Kempe Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (40), Drew Doughty (10)0–2
- P15:35Phillip Danault Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (26), Trevor Moore (19)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:35Phillip Danault Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (26), Trevor Moore (19)SJ 0 – 1 LA · LA 74% → 85% +11LA 74% → 85%+11 pts
- P115:13Adrian Kempe Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (40), Drew Doughty (10)SJ 0 – 2 LA · LA 84% → 92% +8LA 84% → 92%+8 pts
- P24:52Cam Lund Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (9)SJ 1 – 2 LA · SJ 7% → 16% +9SJ 7% → 16%+9 pts
- P26:57Trevor Moore Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (41), Andrei Kuzmenko (17)SJ 1 – 3 LA · LA 84% → 93% +9LA 84% → 93%+9 pts
- P213:31Warren Foegele Goal (21) Deflected, assists: Brandt Clarke (26), Quinton Byfield (27)SJ 1 – 4 LA · LA 94% → 98% +4LA 94% → 98%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- LA 75%
- ML SJ +280 / LA -360
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- LA: Elo 72.9%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- LA -297
- SJ +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.0 – 3.5 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1374 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | LA and SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +16 | −2 | SJ: Georgi Romanov: team allows 0.39 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +171 Elo | LA 72.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 74.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 74.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 2.62nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.1 | Margin | +0.311th of 32 |
| 31st of 3246.2% | Shot share | 52.5%6th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 90.6%9th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 31st of 328–27 | Road vs home | 26–82nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–29 | 34–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 17–27 |
| Underdog | 42–29 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders | 35–37 | 28–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 3–4 LA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.