Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals1
- Morgan RiellyAssists3
- Morgan RiellyPoints3
Hurricanes- Brent BurnsAssists1
- Brent BurnsPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:43John Tavares Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (25), Morgan Rielly (34)4–1
- P37:58Sebastian Aho Goal (29) Slap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (35), Brent Burns (23)3–1
- P31:25William Nylander Goal (45) Tip-In, assists: Max Domi (24), Simon Benoit (9)3–0
- P210:20Auston Matthews Goal (31) Slap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (33), Mitch Marner (73)2–0
- P119:43Pontus Holmberg Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (32), Brandon Carlo (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:43Pontus Holmberg Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (32), Brandon Carlo (11)TOR 1 – 0 CAR · TOR 37% → 55% +18TOR 37% → 55%+18 pts
- P210:20Auston Matthews Goal (31) Slap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (33), Mitch Marner (73)TOR 2 – 0 CAR · TOR 59% → 77% +18TOR 59% → 77%+18 pts
- P31:25William Nylander Goal (45) Tip-In, assists: Max Domi (24), Simon Benoit (9)TOR 3 – 0 CAR · TOR 86% → 96% +10TOR 86% → 96%+10 pts
- P37:58Sebastian Aho Goal (29) Slap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (35), Brent Burns (23)TOR 3 – 1 CAR · CAR 1% → 7% +6CAR 1% → 7%+6 pts
- P315:43John Tavares Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (25), Morgan Rielly (34)TOR 4 – 1 CAR · TOR >99% → >99% +0TOR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 66%
- ML TOR +180 / CAR -215
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- CAR: Elo 58.6%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- CAR -191
- TOR +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.3 – 3.2 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | CAR and TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −14 | +3 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +61 Elo | CAR 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 62.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 13th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.57th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 56.0%1st of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 89.6%21st of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3223–16 | Road vs home | 31–91st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–41 | 37–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–34 | 34–39 |
| Underdog | 15–7 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 40–39 | 35–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–4 CAR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.