Carolina Hurricanes at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Andrei SvechnikovGoals1
- Taylor HallAssists2
- Andrei SvechnikovPoints2
Senators- Drake BathersonGoals2
- Dylan CozensAssists2
- Drake BathersonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:48Tim Stützle Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (46), Tyler Kleven (6)5–7
- P313:38Drake Batherson Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (55), Dylan Cozens (31)5–6
- P310:01Drake Batherson Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (22), Dylan Cozens (30)5–5
- P34:17Adam Gaudette Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (54)5–4
- P26:32Tyson Jost Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (24)5–3
- P24:05Jack Roslovic Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–3
- P20:50Andrei Svechnikov Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (24), Shayne Gostisbehere (38)3–3
- P119:18Skyler Brind'Amour Goal (1) Batted, assists: William Carrier (7), Scott Morrow (5)2–3
- P117:33Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (28), Taylor Hall (23)1–3
- P117:22Shane Pinto Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (16), Ridly Greig (21)0–3
- P116:35Dylan Cozens Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (42), Jake Sanderson (45)0–2
- P111:55Adam Gaudette Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Cousins (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:05Jack Roslovic Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCAR 4 – 3 OTT · CAR 43% → 62% +19CAR 43% → 62%+19 pts
- P26:32Tyson Jost Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (24)CAR 5 – 3 OTT · CAR 63% → 79% +16CAR 63% → 79%+16 pts
- P34:17Adam Gaudette Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (54)CAR 5 – 4 OTT · OTT 9% → 27% +18OTT 9% → 27%+18 pts
- P310:01Drake Batherson Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (22), Dylan Cozens (30)CAR 5 – 5 OTT · OTT 21% → 54% +33OTT 21% → 54%+33 pts
- P313:38Drake Batherson Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (55), Dylan Cozens (31)CAR 5 – 6 OTT · OTT 53% → 88% +35OTT 53% → 88%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 59%
- ML CAR +135 / OTT -155
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- OTT: Elo 54.8%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- OTT -143
- CAR +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.5 – 3.0 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +5 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +33 Elo | OTT 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.811th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 1st of 3256.0% | Shot share | 50.6%11th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 90.7%7th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3216–24 | Road vs home | 26–147th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–44 | 34–47 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 34–40 | 13–35 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 21–12 |
| Overs–unders | 36–45 | 38–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 4–1 OTT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.