Philadelphia Flyers at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Garnet HathawayGoals1
- Garnet HathawayAssists1
- Garnet HathawayPoints2
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals2
- Thomas ChabotAssists2
- Tim StutzlePoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:40Tim Stützle Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (41), Claude Giroux (35)3–4
- P312:54Thomas Chabot Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Angus Crookshank (1), Tim Stützle (52)3–3
- P37:33Garnet Hathaway Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Seeler (17)3–2
- P34:41Fabian Zetterlund Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (16), Thomas Chabot (36)2–2
- P217:17Noah Cates Goal (16) Wrap-around, assists: Emil Andrae (6), Bobby Brink (28)2–1
- P212:36Tim Stützle Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (35), Travis Hamonic (6)1–1
- P211:43Nicolas Deslauriers Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Cam York (13), Garnet Hathaway (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P217:17Noah Cates Goal (16) Wrap-around, assists: Emil Andrae (6), Bobby Brink (28)PHI 2 – 1 OTT · PHI 41% → 64% +23PHI 41% → 64%+23 pts
- P34:41Fabian Zetterlund Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (16), Thomas Chabot (36)PHI 2 – 2 OTT · OTT 30% → 58% +28OTT 30% → 58%+28 pts
- P37:33Garnet Hathaway Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Seeler (17)PHI 3 – 2 OTT · PHI 43% → 73% +30PHI 43% → 73%+30 pts
- P312:54Thomas Chabot Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Angus Crookshank (1), Tim Stützle (52)PHI 3 – 3 OTT · OTT 18% → 55% +38OTT 18% → 55%+38 pts
- OT1:40Tim Stützle Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (41), Claude Giroux (35)PHI 3 – 4 OTT · OTT 54% → 95% +41OTT 54% → 95%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 65%
- ML PHI +175 / OTT -210
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- OTT: Elo 67.5%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- OTT -186
- PHI +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.3 – 3.2 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −5 | PHI: Ivan Fedotov: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +127 Elo | OTT 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 70.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 69.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 28th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 50.5%14th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.9% | Save percentage | 90.8%6th of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 25th of 3213–26 | Road vs home | 25–138th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–41 | 34–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–16 | 13–33 |
| Underdog | 30–25 | 21–12 |
| Overs–unders | 40–39 | 36–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–3 OTT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.