New York Islanders at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Noah DobsonGoals1
- Tony DeAngeloAssists2
- Anders LeePoints2
Flyers- Tyson FoersterGoals2
- Owen TippettAssists2
- Tyson FoersterPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Bobby Brink Goal Snap Shot0–1
- P318:59Bo Horvat Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony DeAngelo (15), Anders Lee (25)3–3
- P310:34Tyson Foerster Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (23), Noah Cates (20)2–3
- P34:29Jakob Pelletier Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Owen Tippett (22), Ryan Poehling (18)2–2
- P217:58Noah Dobson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (29), Scott Mayfield (6)2–1
- P210:54Anders Lee Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Noah Dobson (29), Anthony DeAngelo (14)1–1
- P23:28Tyson Foerster Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Sean Couturier (28), Matvei Michkov (36)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:54Anders Lee Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Noah Dobson (29), Anthony DeAngelo (14)NYI 1 – 1 PHI · NYI 29% → 49% +20NYI 29% → 49%+20 pts
- P217:58Noah Dobson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (29), Scott Mayfield (6)NYI 2 – 1 PHI · NYI 49% → 72% +23NYI 49% → 72%+23 pts
- P34:29Jakob Pelletier Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Owen Tippett (22), Ryan Poehling (18)NYI 2 – 2 PHI · PHI 24% → 51% +26PHI 24% → 51%+26 pts
- P310:34Tyson Foerster Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (23), Noah Cates (20)NYI 2 – 3 PHI · PHI 50% → 82% +32PHI 50% → 82%+32 pts
- P318:59Bo Horvat Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony DeAngelo (15), Anders Lee (25)NYI 3 – 3 PHI · NYI <1% → 50% +50NYI <1% → 50%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 51%
- ML NYI -105 / PHI -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- NYI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.7 – 2.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −16 | +1 | NYI: Marcus Hogberg: team allows 0.40 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +33 Elo | PHI 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.528th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.627th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 50.3%15th of 32 |
| 17th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 87.8%32nd of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 22nd of 3215–23 | Road vs home | 19–2023rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–42 | 38–40 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 8–15 |
| Underdog | 25–14 | 30–25 |
| Overs–unders | 42–36 | 39–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 4–2 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.