Chicago Blackhawks at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals2
- Connor BedardAssists1
- Connor BedardPoints3
Senators- Nick CousinsGoals1
- Dylan CozensAssists2
- Dylan CozensPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:48Frank Nazar Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (44)4–3
- P215:06Drake Batherson Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (29)3–3
- P22:24Connor Bedard Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (23), Sam Rinzel (5)3–2
- P21:19Thomas Chabot Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (53), Dylan Cozens (28)2–2
- P16:56Nick Cousins Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dennis Gilbert (6), Nikolas Matinpalo (3)2–1
- P16:13Joseph Veleno Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Moore (4), Nick Foligno (20)2–0
- P11:28Connor Bedard Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (31), Kevin Korchinski (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:56Nick Cousins Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dennis Gilbert (6), Nikolas Matinpalo (3)CHI 2 – 1 OTT · OTT 39% → 54% +15OTT 39% → 54%+15 pts
- P21:19Thomas Chabot Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (53), Dylan Cozens (28)CHI 2 – 2 OTT · OTT 49% → 66% +18OTT 49% → 66%+18 pts
- P22:24Connor Bedard Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (23), Sam Rinzel (5)CHI 3 – 2 OTT · CHI 34% → 52% +18CHI 34% → 52%+18 pts
- P215:06Drake Batherson Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (29)CHI 3 – 3 OTT · OTT 41% → 63% +22OTT 41% → 63%+22 pts
- OT0:48Frank Nazar Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (44)CHI 4 – 3 OTT · CHI 44% → 89% +45CHI 44% → 89%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 70%
- ML CHI +220 / OTT -270
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- OTT: Elo 74.0%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- OTT -234
- CHI +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.7 – 3.8 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1389 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −4 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +182 Elo | OTT 74.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 77.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 76.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 31st of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.9 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3244.2% | Shot share | 50.4%14th of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 90.8%6th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 31st of 329–31 | Road vs home | 26–137th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–38 | 34–46 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 13–34 |
| Underdog | 42–35 | 21–12 |
| Overs–unders | 45–36 | 37–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–2 OTT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.