New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Nico HischierGoals1
- Brett PesceAssists1
- Nico HischierPoints1
Hurricanes- Logan StankovenGoals2
- Taylor HallAssists2
- Logan StankovenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:32Andrei Svechnikov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (2)1–4
- P218:51Nico Hischier Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (1), Brett Pesce (1)1–3
- P213:08Logan Stankoven Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (1), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (1)0–3
- P26:37Logan Stankoven Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (1), Jaccob Slavin (1)0–2
- P12:24Jalen Chatfield Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (1), Jack Roslovic (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:24Jalen Chatfield Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (1), Jack Roslovic (1)NJ 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 66% → 79% +12CAR 66% → 79%+12 pts
- P26:37Logan Stankoven Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (1), Jaccob Slavin (1)NJ 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 79% → 90% +11CAR 79% → 90%+11 pts
- P213:08Logan Stankoven Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (1), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (1)NJ 0 – 3 CAR · CAR 92% → 97% +6CAR 92% → 97%+6 pts
- P218:51Nico Hischier Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (1), Brett Pesce (1)NJ 1 – 3 CAR · NJ 2% → 7% +5NJ 2% → 7%+5 pts
- P317:32Andrei Svechnikov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (2)NJ 1 – 4 CAR · CAR >99% → >99% +0CAR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 67%
- ML NJ +190 / CAR -225
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- CAR: Elo 59.9%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- CAR -201
- NJ +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.3 – 3.2 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −3 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +70 Elo | CAR 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 64.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.210th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 7th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 56.0%1st of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 89.3%26th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 7th of 3222–18 | Road vs home | 31–101st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–50 | 37–45 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 25–42 | 34–40 |
| Underdog | 7–8 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 33–49 | 37–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 2–5 CAR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.