Detroit Red Wings at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Jonatan BerggrenGoals1
- Moritz SeiderAssists2
- Jonatan BerggrenPoints2
Devils- Dawson MercerGoals1
- Mike HardmanAssists1
- Dawson MercerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:50Marco Kasper Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (53), Jonatan Berggren (12)5–2
- P317:09Alex DeBrincat Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (40), Moritz Seider (37)4–2
- P314:21Dawson Mercer Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Haula (10), Mike Hardman (1)3–2
- P311:32Erik Haula Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Daniel Sprong (5), Seamus Casey (4)3–1
- P32:55Dylan Larkin Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Edvinsson (24), Moritz Seider (36)3–0
- P25:20J.T. Compher Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (10), Jeff Petry (7)2–0
- P117:07Jonatan Berggren Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Edvinsson (23), Lucas Raymond (52)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:07Jonatan Berggren Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Edvinsson (23), Lucas Raymond (52)DET 1 – 0 NJ · DET 57% → 73% +16DET 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P25:20J.T. Compher Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (10), Jeff Petry (7)DET 2 – 0 NJ · DET 74% → 87% +13DET 74% → 87%+13 pts
- P32:55Dylan Larkin Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Edvinsson (24), Moritz Seider (36)DET 3 – 0 NJ · DET 93% → 98% +5DET 93% → 98%+5 pts
- P314:21Dawson Mercer Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Haula (10), Mike Hardman (1)DET 3 – 2 NJ · NJ <1% → 11% +10NJ <1% → 11%+10 pts
- P317:09Alex DeBrincat Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (40), Moritz Seider (37)DET 4 – 2 NJ · DET 96% → >99% +4DET 96% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DET 58%
- ML DET -150 / NJ +130
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.5 pts
- DET: Elo 47.4%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -138
- NJ +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 2.5 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +3 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +18 Elo | NJ 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.311th of 32 |
| 25th of 3248.7% | Shot share | 51.6%7th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.5%9th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 21st of 3216–23 | Road vs home | 18–2126th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–34 | 32–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–14 | 25–42 |
| Underdog | 40–20 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 40–40 | 32–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–3 NJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.