Dallas Stars at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Colin BlackwellGoals1
- Jamie BennAssists2
- Jamie BennPoints2
Red Wings- Moritz SeiderGoals1
- Moritz SeiderAssists2
- Moritz SeiderPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:04Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (9), Moritz Seider (35)4–6
- P312:56Wyatt Johnston Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (33), Brendan Smith (5)4–5
- P39:49Lucas Raymond Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: none3–5
- P34:19Moritz Seider Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (51), Dylan Larkin (39)3–4
- P31:15Jonatan Berggren Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (50), Moritz Seider (34)3–3
- P211:25Colin Blackwell Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Steel (19), Cody Ceci (20)3–2
- P29:00Evgenii Dadonov Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Roope Hintz (39)2–2
- P113:52Alex DeBrincat Goal (37) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (37), Marco Kasper (17)1–2
- P17:15Lian Bichsel Goal (4) Poke, assists: Jamie Benn (32), Mikko Rantanen (56)1–1
- P14:27Albert Johansson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (38), Jonatan Berggren (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:52Alex DeBrincat Goal (37) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (37), Marco Kasper (17)DAL 1 – 2 DET · DET 48% → 64% +16DET 48% → 64%+16 pts
- P29:00Evgenii Dadonov Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Roope Hintz (39)DAL 2 – 2 DET · DAL 32% → 52% +20DAL 32% → 52%+20 pts
- P211:25Colin Blackwell Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Steel (19), Cody Ceci (20)DAL 3 – 2 DET · DAL 52% → 71% +20DAL 52% → 71%+20 pts
- P31:15Jonatan Berggren Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (50), Moritz Seider (34)DAL 3 – 3 DET · DET 25% → 49% +24DET 25% → 49%+24 pts
- P34:19Moritz Seider Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (51), Dylan Larkin (39)DAL 3 – 4 DET · DET 49% → 75% +26DET 49% → 75%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 52%
- ML DAL -120 / DET +100
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- DAL: Elo 56.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DAL -109
- DET +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.3 – 3.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +3 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +46 Elo | DAL 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 48.6%25th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 89.7%20th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 4th of 3222–16 | Road vs home | 21–1918th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–43 | 45–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–38 | 6–14 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 39–20 |
| Overs–unders | 36–44 | 39–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–0 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.