Vancouver Canucks at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Pius SuterGoals2
- Conor GarlandAssists3
- Conor GarlandPoints3
Stars- Matt DucheneGoals1
- Jamie BennAssists2
- Matt DuchenePoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:44Kiefer Sherwood Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (29)6–5
- P319:53Pius Suter Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (27), Quinn Hughes (58)5–5
- P319:30Pius Suter Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (28), Filip Hronek (26)4–5
- P319:00Aatu Raty Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Pettersson (24)3–5
- P317:39Mikael Granlund Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (21), Matt Duchene (51)2–5
- P317:15Mavrik Bourque Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (45), Cody Ceci (19)2–4
- P34:39Victor Mancini Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Aatu Raty (3), Linus Karlsson (2)2–3
- P30:17Jake DeBrusk Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (27), Quinn Hughes (57)1–3
- P27:28Matt Duchene Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (31), Mikael Granlund (44)0–3
- P118:01Mason Marchment Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (30), Mikael Granlund (43)0–2
- P113:48Mikko Rantanen Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (38), Thomas Harley (34)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:48Mikko Rantanen Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (38), Thomas Harley (34)VAN 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 63% → 77% +14DAL 63% → 77%+14 pts
- P118:01Mason Marchment Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (30), Mikael Granlund (43)VAN 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 77% → 88% +11DAL 77% → 88%+11 pts
- P34:39Victor Mancini Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Aatu Raty (3), Linus Karlsson (2)VAN 2 – 3 DAL · VAN 5% → 18% +13VAN 5% → 18%+13 pts
- P319:53Pius Suter Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (27), Quinn Hughes (58)VAN 5 – 5 DAL · VAN 0% → 49% +49VAN 0% → 49%+49 pts
- OT3:44Kiefer Sherwood Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (29)VAN 6 – 5 DAL · VAN 48% → >99% +51VAN 48% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 64%
- ML VAN +170 / DAL -200
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- DAL: Elo 66.3%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -180
- VAN +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.3 – 3.2 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1584 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −4 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +118 Elo | DAL 66.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 65.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.43rd of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.94th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.8% | Shot share | 49.8%17th of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 91.5%3rd of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 11th of 3219–20 | Road vs home | 28–93rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–41 | 37–40 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–23 | 30–35 |
| Underdog | 26–18 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 38–39 | 34–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 1–4 DAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.